Super Tuesday 2008: My predictions

An unprecedented amount of attention has been directed toward the early stages of the 2008 election; political talk dominates everything from the water-cooler to television to casual conversation. Undoubtedly, there is much at stake. We’re still fighting in Iraq, the economy is sliding into a recession, and global warming looms. Change must come– and soon. The next President will direct the future of the nation, for better or for worse. The attention is understandable.

Super Tuesday will be very significant, as 24 states count off their support for the various candidates. Missouri, as a bellwether state, will play a large role. Since 1904, Missouri election results have predicted the national winner with 96% accuracy. This is most likely because Missouri mirrors the demographic, economic, and political makeup of the nation. Here are my predictions for how Missouri will swing this time around:

In the Democratic contest, Barack Obama faces off against Hillary Clinton. Both tout very similar records, promising to improve health care, education and the economy. Much of the differences between the two candidates come down to personal preference, making this election is tough to call. I think that many will vote in favor of Clinton’s experience. Clinton has some serious clout in Washington and knows how to work the system. She has made a few mistakes over the years, but she has learned from them. While Obama’s plans sometimes seem too idealistic, Clinton is firmly grounded in economic reality. Some consider her cold and domineering, but hey– if she had to claw her way to where she is now, I don’t begrudge her that. She has come further than any other woman, and she’s tough as nails. Our country would be safe in her hands.

However, Barack Obama has a draw as well– I witnessed that firsthand last Saturday, when I attended a rally for Barack Obama in St. Louis. I crowded into an arena with 20,000 others and stood waiting for two hours just to hear the man speak. Looking around at the masses gathered, I wondered how Barack Obama could draw bigger crowds than a Hannah Montana concert. Now I know. He brings people together. He gives them hope. Young people in particular have flocked to Obama’s rally call of change– if they vote in significant numbers (historically, they have not) they could tip the scales in Obama’s favor. Senator Claire McCaskill’s endorsement also could give Obama a considerable edge. But who will vote? Despite dismal turnout for recent elections, will young people take a stand this time around? And just how much does experience matter?